目次
Fundamental Analysis
- Nikkei 225 remains above 40,000, but upside is capped
- BOJ Tankan Survey beats market expectations, fueling yen buying
- President Trump voices repeated dissatisfaction with Japan–U.S. trade
USDJPY Technical Analysis
USDJPY has declined for two consecutive days. The dollar continues to weaken, creating a favorable environment for yen buying.
Drawing a Fibonacci expansion shows the pair breaking below the upward trendline and falling into the high 143-yen range.
The 61.8% Fibonacci level is acting as support, but there is a possibility it may be broken.
The 100% projection level is around 142.50 yen. Watch closely for a clear break below the 61.8% level.
Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)
On the 1-hour chart, the pair plunged toward 143.50 yen and then rebounded back to the 61.8% retracement level. However, it appears the 61.8% level is now acting as resistance.
If confirmed, this could lead to new selling orders. That said, it’s not yet a decisive setup, so caution is advised.
Day trading plan:
Place a sell limit order around 144.00 yen, take profit at around 142.50 yen, and set a stop at 144.25 yen.
Set two pending orders and wait for the market movement.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support and resistance levels to watch going forward:
- 1144.00 – Trendline
- 143.80 – Fibonacci level
- 142.50 – Fibonacci level
Market Sentiment
USDJPY
- 40% short ／ 60% long
Key Economic Events Today
| Event／Indicator | Time（JPT） |
| Japan – BOJ Tankan Survey | 8:50 |
| Eurozone – CPI (HICP) | 18:00 |
| U.S. – Fed Chair Powell Speaks | 22:30 |
| U.S. – Manufacturing PMI | 22:45 |
| U.S. – ISM Manufacturing Index | 23:00 |