目次
Fundamental Analysis
- President Trump sends a handwritten letter demanding a rate cut from the Fed Chair
- Markets question the Fed’s independence, leading to intensified USD selling
- US-Japan trade talks stall, reports suggest consideration of 30–35% tariffs
- Gold rises $80 over two days, suggesting asset flows out of USD
USDJPY Technical Analysis
Analyzing the USDJPY daily chart: USDJPY broke below the 61.8% retracement level, briefly dipping under 143. Although short covering occurred, the 61.8% level now serves as resistance, indicating persistent selling pressure.
President Trump’s handwritten demand for rate cuts sent to the Fed Chair came as a major shock. It clearly casts doubt on the Fed’s independence. The market reacted with USD selling, pushing USDJPY lower.
As long as the Trump administration remains in power, the rate-cutting stance will likely persist. Consequently, further USD selling and JPY buying seem likely.
Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)
On the 1-hour chart, a clear rebound from the 61.8% level is observed. As long as this level isn’t breached to the upside, a bearish trading stance is preferred. Since the price is currently above the 24-period moving average, it would be prudent to wait for a drop below this line before considering entry.
The RSI hovers around the 50 mark, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressure.
Day trading strategy:
Consider short entry after a confirmed break below the 24-period moving average. Set take-profit near 142.85 yen and stop-loss if the price moves back above the 24-period MA. Note that market volatility may increase due to the upcoming ADP Employment Report.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support and resistance levels to watch going forward:
- 143.78 – 61.8% retracement level
- 142.68 – Yesterday’s low
Market Sentiment
USDJPY
- 39% short ／ 61% long
Key Economic Events Today
| Event／Indicator | Time（JPT） |
| US ADP Employment Report | 21:15 |
| ECB President Lagarde Speech | 23:15 |
| US Crude Oil Inventories | 23:30 |