目次
Fundamental Analysis
- The U.S. administration announced a 50% tariff on Brazil.
- Prices of copper, silver, and other precious metals surged.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis
Analyzing the daily chart of gold shows a triangle pattern forming, with lower highs and higher lows indicating a lack of clear direction. Currently, the market is in a range around 3300USD.
Let’s explore possible movements ahead. The Alligator indicator, developed by Bill Williams, shows the long-term > medium-term > short-term moving averages aligned from top to bottom, signaling a bearish outlook.
The price is approaching the lower trendline of the triangle pattern, so we should watch for a potential breakout. The Parabolic SAR, often used for stop-and-reverse strategies, is positioned above the candlesticks, which also supports a bearish stance unless a buy signal is triggered.
Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)
On the 1-hour chart, the price is reacting to a descending trendline and has rebounded. The Parabolic SAR is below the candlesticks on the 1-hour chart, making it difficult to justify a short entry.
Additionally, the Alligator lines are opening upward.
There’s a conflict between the daily and hourly charts. However, with many stop-loss orders likely below current levels, a downside breakout could lead to a measurable decline.
For short-term trades, consider a new short position when a Parabolic SAR sell signal appears. For medium- to long-term strategies, consider buying around the 3280USD level if the price drops.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support and resistance levels to watch going forward:
- 3320USD – Short-term Alligator
- 3282USD – Recent daily low
Market Sentiment
XAUUSD
- 47% short ／ 53% long
Key Economic Events Today
| Event／Indicator | Time（JPT） |
| Japan – Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index | 8:50 |
| U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims | 21:30 |